Rigorously researched, market-focused
forecast models
Evidence‑driven epidemiology forecast models for modern drug development
Epivantage specializes in building rigorously researched, high‑resolution epidemiological forecast models designed for the era of genetic medicine, targeted therapies, and increasingly niche drug labels. Our models are available as fully customized solutions or as ready‑to‑download files from our Model Library, giving biopharma teams fast access to defensible, launch‑ready epidemiology.
Built by physician‑epidemiologists using best‑in‑class evidence
Our physician‑epidemiologists conduct systematic reviews of the published literature and perform deep‑dive analyses across both proprietary and publicly available datasets. This evidence base forms the backbone of every model we produce, ensuring scientific credibility and real‑world relevance.
Forecasting eligible patient populations across 26 high‑income markets
Each model is engineered to quantify the eligible patient population for upcoming drug approvals and existing therapies. Forecasts extend over a 20‑year horizon and cover 26 high‑income countries, including China, providing a global view of future treatment opportunity.
A multi‑parameter, evidence‑based forecasting approach
Our forecasting methodology incorporates multiple epidemiological parameters—always grounded in published studies and real‑world datasets. This ensures that every assumption is defensible, transparent, and aligned with the most current understanding of disease epidemiology.
Interactive, updateable, and scenario‑ready
All Epivantage models are interactive and updateable. Every cited estimate can be refreshed as new evidence emerges, and parameters can be adjusted to explore alternative scenarios, evolving medical practice, or shifts in diagnostic pathways. This flexibility empowers teams to plan confidently in dynamic therapeutic landscapes.
Translating evidence into actionable insights
Evidence‑based epidemiology for modern drug development
Epivantage delivers rigorously researched, evidence‑based, and flexible epidemiological forecast models that meet the evolving needs of today’s pharmaceutical industry. As genetic medicine, targeted therapies, and niche drug labels reshape modern medicine, our models are designed to provide the clarity and accuracy required for confident decision‑making.
Forecast populations aligned to real‑world eligibility
We are committed to ensuring that every forecasted population reflects the actual or potential eligible patient population in clinical practice. Our epidemiologists align model outputs with real‑world criteria—including clinical trial inclusion criteria, approved drug labels, and prevailing treatment guidelines—so that biopharma teams can rely on forecasts that map directly to commercial and clinical reality.
What makes our forecast models different?
Commercial alignment
We review key trial inclusion criteria, drug approvals and treatment guidelines to inform our research and analysis, focusing on those estimates that allow the sizing of drug-treatable patient populations.
AI-powered SLRs
All our estimates originate from systematic literature reviews (SLRs) and our analyses of real-world datasets. Our SLRs include the results of a dedicated AI agent which are incorporated alongside the manual SLR results.
Partner Program
Full membership to our Model Library comes with 160 dedicated epidemiologist hours per year that can be spent on customization to better suit their needs. We encourage everyone to participate in our coverage planning.
Patient Flow and Patient Funnel Diagrams
For each disease we aim to size the patient population at each state, from diagnosis or pathogenesis to remission or stable disease, and filter down to those most accessible and available for treatment.
Our research and development framework
Our research and development is standardized wherever possible to a regimented sequence of steps, beginning with a scoping exercise, followed by the collation and analysis of data, the building of the forecast model and final publication to the Epivantage Model Library.
Read Our Methodology ArticleCommercial Alignment
We review pivotal trial designs, R&D pipelines and drug approvals and plan our patient population coverage accordingly.
SLR and Data Analysis
From our internal sources catalog, databases of collated results, published literature and AI-powered search query results, we identify the best sources to use and collate all the relevant results.
Model Generation
With the results in, we build the forecast mode. Each source is cited, imputation and extrapolation are used when justified, along with our age-cohort forecasting approach.
Publication and Support
Once uploaded to the Epivantage Model Library we provide ongoing support for our clients by email with a named email address of the author or other epidemiologist.
Milestones
Epivantage founded with focus on oncology epidemiology forecasting
Expanded coverage to include cardiovascular and respiratory disease areas
Launched online research library platform with 50+ reports
Established strategic consulting services for custom research engagements
Passed 200+ published forecast models across 40+ disease areas
Launched interactive dashboard platform for authorized subscribers
Research Leadership
Dr. Alexandra Richardson
Chief Research Officer20+ years in epidemiology and disease modelling. Former academic at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, specialising in oncology and chronic disease epidemiology.
Marcus Thornton
Director, Forecast ModelsExpert in patient-based epidemiology modelling and pharmaceutical market research. Previously led epidemiology at a top-10 global pharma company.
Sunita Patel
Senior Research AnalystSpecialises in rare disease epidemiology and HTA-aligned evidence packages. MSc Epidemiology, Imperial College London.
James Holloway
Head of Client Strategy15+ years supporting pharmaceutical strategy and market access. Connects client strategic needs with Epivantage's research capabilities.
Need Custom Research?
Our Research Team Develops Bespoke Epidemiology Models And Disease Intelligence Tailored To Your Specific Strategic Requirements.